A recent survey for The Independent suggests that Rishi Sunak is poised to lead the Conservative Party to the biggest loss in its 346-year history.
With one day of campaigning remaining, Techne UK's poll of 5,503 respondents gives Labour a 19-point advantage at 40%, nearly twice the Tories' 21%.
She said: “Our last Westminster tracker poll of this general election campaign has been delivered with a very large sample audience of 5,503 potential electors. While there has over the last week to 10 days been a small contraction in the Labour lead, it is clear from our final pre-election poll that the Conservatives are heading for a defeat.
“With ‘won’t vote’ hitting an all-time high of 26 per cent of the total electorate – an incredible 44 per cent won’t vote in the age group 18-34 years – I am absolutely sure we are heading towards a significant Labour majority and change of government.
“The question is: how many Conservative voters will stay at home on Thursday? This time, more than ever, voters will decide on the route to the polling station and I feel a big uncertainty on the final results. It’s not a question about Labour, which will certainly win, but what Conservatives will do and the impact the results will have on the future of the party.”
The headline findings appeared to be confirmed by a Redfield and Wilton poll of 20,000 voters which also gave Labour (42 per cent) a 19-point lead over the Tories (23 per cent), with Reform on 16 per cent.
Philip van Scheltinga, Redfield and Wilton’s director of research, said: “A 19-per-cent lead for Labour just two days before election day is incredible.
“The Conservatives appear to have recovered a bit in the last week and a half, it is true, but they still have not improved relative to where they were before the election was called (their 22 per cent is one point less than they had on the first poll post-election announcement).
“Reform, meanwhile, has faltered a bit in the last week and a half, but it is still well up from where it was pre-Farage return.”
He added: “The election result will be devastating for the Conservatives. Given our polling only a week ago, it appears it could have been even worse, but that will be a very faint consolation.”
The Techne data also revealed the enormous political apathy among voters with more than a quarter (26 per cent) saying they will not vote, an increase of two points from last week. Most concerningly, almost half (44 per cent) of 18- to 34-year-olds have decided they will not vote in this general election.
Another worrying sign for the Tories is that one in five (19 per cent) of 2016 Leave voters are so disillusioned that they’ve decided not to vote. The Tories are already trailing Reform in this core group of their voters by 27 per cent to 24 per cent.
In another core group, pensioners, the Tories are trailing Labour by 33 per cent to 26 per cent – this despite claiming that Labour will start taxing pensions for the first time in history and their offering a triple lock plus state pension guarantee.
It follows a campaign littered with gaffes and missteps by the Tories, including Mr Sunak causing outrage by leaving last month’s D-Day commemorations early. The most devastating blow may have come with the gambling scandal over the election date which implicated members of Mr Sunak’s inner circle.
Attempts to scare voters over the impact of a Labour government on household finances and defence appear to have had little impact.
Leaders were preparing for a final day of campaigning on Wednesday. Sir Keir Starmer is set to attempt to seal the deal with voters with a whistlestop tour taking in Wales, Scotland and the West Midlands with a final focus on the economy.e
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