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British university students could face a significantly narrowed selection of courses as higher education experts warn that stricter immigration rules being considered by the government could trigger widespread course and department closures. This potential crackdown on study visas, aimed at reducing the number of international students remaining in the UK for lower-paid jobs after graduation, is predicted to exacerbate the already precarious financial state of the sector and could lead to UK universities falling in global rankings.
The warning comes in the same week that the Office for Students (OfS), the universities regulator, revealed that a concerning 43 percent of higher education providers in England are facing a financial deficit in the 2024/25 academic year. This existing fragility, marked by job cuts and shrinking research budgets across institutions, now faces the prospect of worsening considerably if the government proceeds with the tougher immigration measures outlined earlier this week. Analysis suggests that billions of pounds in revenue for the higher education sector are at stake.
These potential rule changes, speculated to be partly a response to recent local election successes for Reform UK, would likely mandate that international graduates secure graduate-level employment to remain in the UK, effectively limiting post-study work opportunities in lower-skilled roles. Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) thinktank, cautioned that such policies could accelerate a "doom loop" for universities, leading to a further decline in international student numbers and intensifying the sector's funding crisis.
"It would mean lots of course closures up and down the UK because those courses would be no longer viable; and it would mean a lot less university research, because there wouldn’t be the cross-subsidy from international fees to research," Hillman explained. He further emphasized the broader implications, stating, "What we’re letting slip by is our world-class position in the global league tables. Most universities won’t go bust, but they won’t be as good as they would otherwise have been."
Hillman drew parallels with the financial difficulties currently being experienced by universities in Scotland, referencing the recent £22 million bailout for Dundee University, and predicted that a similar crisis was "coming England’s way," potentially leading to up to 20,000 university redundancies this year and the closure of entire academic departments. This figure doubles the already estimated 10,000 job losses projected by the University and College Union (UCU).
The UCU's general secretary, Jo Grady, echoed these concerns, stating, "If Labour clamps down even further on foreign students studying in the UK, without providing any more funding for the sector, there is a real risk of universities going under."
Reports indicate that the Home Office’s forthcoming immigration white paper, expected next week, may also include stricter scrutiny of student visa applications from countries with higher rates of students overstaying their visas or claiming asylum, specifically mentioning Pakistan, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka. Universities UK has already acknowledged that any measures deterring genuine international students would have a detrimental effect on the sector.
The University of Bedfordshire, where a significant 47 percent of the student population is from overseas (including 9 percent Nigerian and 6 percent Pakistani), recently announced plans to cut 240 jobs following a restructuring and the closure of performing arts courses. Similarly, the Royal College of Art, with 74 percent international students, has initiated a voluntary leavers scheme for permanent staff. London Business School, where international students comprise 84 percent of the student body, highlighted their significant contribution to the UK economy, noting that many students are sponsored and return home or take on highly skilled UK jobs.
International students have become an increasingly vital source of income for UK universities in recent years. However, the number of international students applying for UK study visas already saw a 16 percent drop last year, following the previous government's ban on foreign postgraduate students on non-research courses bringing family members to the UK, which came into effect in January 2024.
The Office for Students recently identified the decline in international student recruitment as the primary driver behind the worsening financial health of universities, estimating that overseas student numbers could be more than a fifth lower than previous projections. Philippa Pickford, director of regulation at the OfS, acknowledged the significant and ongoing medium-term pressures facing the sector, stating that while widespread university closures are not expected in the short term, the potential for serious disruption remains a concern.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson responded to the OfS report by stating that the "concerning" figures underscored the necessity of last year’s tuition fee rise and reforms. However, former Labour education and home secretary Alan Johnson warned that the proposed new migration controls could push some universities to the brink of collapse, stating that believing the solution to migration issues lies in "ruining our universities and closing some of them... will be making a very big mistake."
A recent Universities UK survey of 60 institutions revealed that a quarter had already implemented compulsory redundancies, nearly half had been forced to close courses, 18 percent had closed entire departments, and 19 percent had reduced investment in research, highlighting the existing strain on the sector.
While the Home Office has stated that international students will "always be welcome in the UK," it maintains that net migration "must come down," with the upcoming white paper intended to "restore order to our broken immigration system." Universities Scotland has expressed a "very high degree of anxiety" regarding the white paper and called for stability in immigration policy to ensure the sector can continue to deliver for domestic students, employers, and research partners.
Impact on South Asian, Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani, Nepali, Sri Lankan, and African Students:
The potential tightening of UK study visas poses significant challenges for students from South Asian and African countries:
- Reduced Course Availability: As universities face financial constraints and potential closures of less popular courses, the range of academic options available to international students from these regions is likely to shrink. This could limit their choices in specialized fields and make it harder to find programs that precisely match their academic and career aspirations.
- Increased Competition: A decrease in the overall number of international student places, coupled with sustained interest from these regions, will inevitably lead to heightened competition for admission. This could raise the academic bar for entry and make it more difficult for qualified students to secure a place at their desired UK universities.
- Financial Strain: While not explicitly stated, the financial repercussions for universities due to reduced international student enrollment could indirectly impact students from these regions. This might manifest in fewer scholarships specifically targeted at international students or increased pressure on living costs if universities are forced to cut back on support services.
- Deterrent Effect of Post-Study Work Restrictions: The proposed emphasis on securing graduate-level jobs to remain in the UK after studies could make the UK less attractive compared to countries with more accessible post-study work pathways. For many students from South Asia and Africa, the opportunity to gain international work experience is a crucial factor in their decision to study abroad.
- Targeted Visa Scrutiny: The reported intention to focus on visa applications from Pakistanis, Nigerians, and Sri Lankans due to higher rates of overstaying could lead to more rigorous application processes, potentially higher rejection rates, and increased anxiety for students from these specific countries. This could disproportionately affect their ability to pursue higher education in the UK.
- Damage to UK's Reputation: Stricter immigration policies and a less welcoming environment for international students could damage the UK's standing as a global leader in education. This could deter talented students from South Asia and Africa from considering UK universities, leading them to choose institutions in other countries with more welcoming and supportive policies.
- Reduced Diversity: A decline in the number of students from these diverse regions would diminish the rich cultural and intellectual exchange within UK universities, impacting the learning environment for all students and potentially hindering the development of global perspectives.
In conclusion, the potential visa crackdown represents a significant threat to prospective students from South Asian and African nations, potentially limiting their academic choices, increasing competition, restricting their post-study options, and making the UK a less desirable destination for higher education.
