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Sir Keir Starmer’s grip on the premiership appears to be slipping as Westminster insiders suggest Angela Rayner is poised to launch a bid for the Labour Party leadership immediately following the upcoming Budget. The Prime Minister, speaking from the G20 Summit in South Africa, has arguably accelerated his own exit strategy by publicly declaring he "absolutely" wants Ms Rayner back in his Cabinet, a move widely interpreted as an admission that his administration cannot survive without her popularity, Daily Dazzling Dawn realized. A formidable operation backs Rayner behind the scenes.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically since Ms Rayner’s resignation in September over a stamp duty dispute. While Number 10 had hoped her departure would stabilize the government, it has had the inverse effect. Fresh polling data released this weekend reveals a stark reality for the Prime Minister: Ms Rayner is now polling significantly ahead of Sir Keir among both the wider electorate and, crucially, the Labour membership. The data suggests the public views her as the authentic voice of the party, with her approval ratings climbing steadily while the Prime Minister’s personal numbers have continued to stagnate.
Sir Keir appears to have privately accepted this reality. Sources close to the Prime Minister indicate he has realized his personal popularity has irretrievably waned, prompting his effusive public praise of his former deputy. Speaking to broadcasters in South Africa, Sir Keir described Ms Rayner as "the best example ever" of social mobility in the United Kingdom. His comments went beyond mere professional courtesy, signaling a deep reliance on her political capital. When asked if he wanted her back, his response was unequivocal: "Do I want Angela back at some stage? Yes, absolutely. I’ve always said I want Angela back."
This public endorsement acts as a double-edged sword. While it clears the path for her return to the front bench, it also validates her status as the heavyweight contender waiting in the wings. By emphasizing that he is "still in contact" with her and that "it’s always good to have Angela," Sir Keir is effectively acknowledging that his Cabinet is weaker in her absence.
The momentum for a leadership change has been building since Ms Rayner was cleared of malicious intent regarding her tax affairs. An investigation by the Prime Minister’s independent adviser on ministers' interests concluded that while she breached the ministerial code by failing to obtain the correct advice on a £40,000 stamp duty liability regarding her former Hove residence, she acted "with integrity." The conclusion of the inquiry has removed the primary obstacle preventing her ascent to the top job.
Ms Rayner herself has done little to quell the speculation. During a recent visit to a care centre in her constituency, she pointedly told reporters she had "not gone away," a comment that resonated with backbench MPs who are increasingly worried about their seats under Starmer’s current trajectory. Her supporters argue that her backstory—leaving school at 16, pregnant and without qualifications, before rising to become Deputy Prime Minister—resonates with voters in a way Sir Keir’s technocratic approach does not.
Support for a Rayner leadership bid is already crystallizing within the Cabinet. Health Secretary Wes Streeting, often viewed as a barometer of party mood, notably paid tribute to her during the Labour Party Conference, stating the party "wants her back and needs her back." Such open support from senior figures suggests that the transition of power could happen sooner rather than later, with the post-Budget period viewed as the optimal window for a reset.
The Prime Minister’s attempt to frame her return as merely a Cabinet reshuffle may be a miscalculation. With the polls clearly favoring Rayner and the Prime Minister’s authority eroding as he faces a tax-raising Budget, the stage is set for one of the most significant political comebacks in modern British history. Angela Rayner is no longer just looking for a way back into the Cabinet; she is looking at the door to Number 10.
The "Odd Couple" Power Dynamic-Sir Keir’s steadfast support for Ms Rayner is rooted in a political reality that predates this latest crisis. Unlike other Cabinet ministers who serve at the pleasure of the Prime Minister, Ms Rayner was elected directly by the party membership in 2020, granting her a personal mandate that Sir Keir could never ignore. For years, strategists have viewed their partnership as a modern parallel to the Tony Blair and John Prescott era—balancing Sir Keir’s forensic, technocratic leadership with Ms Rayner’s authentic, working-class connection to the trade unions and "Red Wall" voters. Despite well-documented tensions, including a botched attempt to demote her in 2021 that ultimately saw her promoted, the Prime Minister has long recognized that he cannot unite the fractious Labour movement without her influence. His current praise is a tacit admission that while he leads the government, she effectively holds the heart of the party.
