One Ummah: Saudi Intervention Secures Yemen’s Unity in 2025

The fragile decade-long alliance between the Middle East’s two most powerful monarchies has reached a violent breaking point. On December 26, 2025, the Saudi Royal Air Force conducted targeted airstrikes against positions held by the Southern Transitional Council (STC)—a separatist force funded and trained by the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—marking a drastic escalation in a "war within a war."

The Spark: Operation Promising Future

The strikes in the Wadi Nahb region of the oil-rich Hadramawt governorate follow a lightning military blitz by the STC. Codenamed "Operation Promising Future," the offensive began in early December, allowing separatist forces to seize over 80% of Yemen’s oil reserves and the strategic coastline bordering Oman.

While the world was focused on the Houthi-Israel tensions in the Red Sea, the STC effectively dismantled the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) on the ground. By capturing the Shahn crossing and the port of Nishtun, the UAE-backed forces have achieved what they have sought since 1990: the de facto restoration of a sovereign South Yemen state.

Why Is Saudi Arabia Attacking its Own Ally's Proxy?

To the casual observer, the sight of Saudi jets bombing "pro-government" forces is baffling. However, for Riyadh, this is a matter of national security and regional hegemony:

The Hadramawt Red Line: Hadramawt is the economic lung of Yemen. Saudi Arabia views any unilateral control of this region by UAE-backed separatists as a threat to its "Vision 2030" stability and its influence over Yemen’s future borders.

Preventing a Houthi Windfall: Analysts suggest Riyadh fears that a fractured south will embolden the Houthi rebels in the north to restart their own offensives, potentially dragging Saudi Arabia back into a direct, costly ground war they have spent three years trying to exit through Omani-mediated talks.

The "Great Divergence": While Saudi Arabia wants a unified (but weak) Yemen that it can manage, the UAE has pivoted toward securing maritime trade routes and ports, favoring a friendly, independent South Yemen state that grants Abu Dhabi long-term strategic depth in the Gulf of Aden.

Updated Intelligence: 20,000 Troops on the Move

As of late December 2025, new reports confirm that Saudi Arabia has massed approximately 20,000 fighters from the National Shield Forces—a specialized militia answering directly to Riyadh—along the border.

Major General Turki al-Maliki, spokesperson for the Saudi-led coalition, issued a stern warning: "Any military movements that contradict de-escalation efforts will be dealt with directly and immediately." This confirms that the Friday airstrikes were not an isolated incident but a "message of deterrence" intended to force the STC to withdraw from the newly captured eastern provinces.

The Human and Economic Toll

The internal rift has sent Brent crude prices climbing, with traders adding a $4 per barrel risk premium due to the instability near key shipping lanes. For the Yemeni people, the "Great Divergence" between their two supposed saviors—Saudi Arabia and the UAE—means another year of displacement and uncertainty.

While the UAE officially "welcomes" Saudi efforts to maintain security, the presence of Emirati-supplied Chinese 155mm howitzers and armored vehicles in the hands of the STC suggests a deep-rooted policy contradiction that diplomacy may no longer be able to fix.