.svg)
The polls have opened in the three-way battle for Gorton and Denton in south-east Manchester in one of the most unpredictable by-elections in years. The Green Party leader Zack Polanski said his party was “neck and neck” with Reform UK to overturn Labour’s 13,000-vote majority, and that Labour will need to “search their conscience” if Reform UK wins. Keir Starmer’s party has targeted left-leaning voters in the Greater Manchester seat with claims that only Labour can see off Nigel Farage’s Reform, saying that a vote for the Greens was “in effect, a vote for Reform.”
The Triple Threat: Labour’s Fragile Fortress
While Labour is defending a massive 13,413-vote majority from the 2024 general election, the ground beneath Sir Keir Starmer has shifted. Internal party data and independent pollsters like Opinium suggest a statistical dead heat. The "squeezed middle" phenomenon is no longer a theory; it is a reality as progressive voters defect to the Greens while working-class voters pivot toward Reform UK.
The Corbyn Factor: A New Power Player
Adding to the volatility is the shadow of Jeremy Corbyn. While not a candidate in this race, his newly registered "Your Party" has just concluded internal leadership elections, solidifying Corbyn’s control over its executive. This organizational surge provides a blueprint for the disillusioned "left-leaning 80%" in Gorton and Denton. Corbyn’s allies now possess a mobilized platform that directly competes for the hearts of traditional Labour supporters who feel alienated by Starmer's move toward the center-right.
Reform UK vs. The Greens: Who Has the Edge?
Reform UK, led here by academic Matt Goodwin, is banking on a "protest vote" against a government eight points behind in national polls. Nigel Farage’s high-profile visit on February 25 served as a final rallying cry for voters frustrated by the cost of living and immigration. Conversely, the Greens, represented by Hannah Spencer, are benefiting from a tactical surge. Recent data indicates that two-thirds of local Liberal Democrat and Labour voters would switch to the Greens specifically to block a Reform victory.
Read more: Greens and Reform UK in Tight Race as Gorton and Denton Heads to the Polls
Why This Result Dictates Starmer’s Future
The Gorton and Denton contest is far more than a local seat change; it is a referendum on "Starmerism." The controversial decision by the Labour NEC to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing has left a bitter taste among locals. A third-place finish for candidate Angeliki Stogia would not just be a local loss—it would likely trigger a leadership crisis in Westminster. With the result expected in the early hours of Friday morning, the eyes of the nation are on Manchester to see if the traditional political order finally breaks.
