Dhaka-New Delhi relations are going through a patchwork with Indian politicians pouring controversial  and provocative statements that are only creating tension between the two neighbouring countries after the exit of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, said diplomats, business leaders and policy-makers.

The political turmoil in Bangladesh during the July-August period, triggered by dictator Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, saw killings of 1500 innocent persons and some 25,000 persons injured. In the history of independent Bangladesh, the country never witnessed such a scenario. Some western countries have issued travel warnings against Bangladesh during the political turmoil…Even the military dictator General Hossain Mohammad Ershad quit the power on December 6, 1990 through a mass political movement to avoid the bloodshed.

Diplomatic sources in Dhaka and New Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai said that India continues to give priorities to political and security issues over the social and cultural ones as the tensions between Dhaka and New Delhi shows no sign of improvement in spite of Foreign Secretary level talks held in Dhaka on December 9, 2024.

Jobayer Tansim Ahmed, a director of Shah Fatehullah Textile Mills Limited, and a former director of the Bangladesh Textiles Mills Association (BTMA), while talking to the Dazzling Dawn said that political tension between two countries have a knock-on-effect on the Bangladesh-India bilateral trade. He said exports of India’s textile products dropped during the last July-November period.

According to the statistics prepared by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and Bangladesh Bank (BB), India's cotton export to Bangladesh dropped sharply during July1- December period. However, export of Indian woven fabrics to Bangladesh remained uninterrupted  during the July1- December 17, 2024 period.  

India’s export of cotton to Bangladesh recorded at 468 million (468499875) US dollars in 2023-24 fiscal year and 771210659.5 US dollars in 2024-25 fiscal year. However, export of Indian cotton  to Bangladesh during July-December 17, 2024 recorded at 229160103.4 US dollars  showing a sharp drop in the export . However, Indian export of woven fabrics to Bangladesh recorded at 402.6 million US dollars in 2023-24 fiscal year and 389.6 million US dollars in 2024-25 fiscal year.  The Indian export of woven fabrics during July- December 17, 2024 recorded at 216 million US dollars that shows an upward trend.

Though Bangladesh does not have proper data on expats living and working in  Bangladesh,  old data shows that at least one lakh Indians are working in Bangladesh. Also Bangladesh Bank does have data on hard  currency being siphoned off through Hundi.  Sources in the Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks said most of the Indians send money home through hundi.

Indian high Commission has tightened issuing visas to Bangladeshis on political and security grounds after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina quit the power through a mass revolution, engineered by the general students.

 Sources in Dhaka and New Delhi said that a good number of Indians left the country after the August revolution and have not returned to Bangladesh. This is also a matter of concern that a good number of Indians have lost their jobs in recent months.

Mohammad Ali Khokon, former president of the Bangladesh Textiles Mills Association (BTMA), while talking to this correspondent said that Bangladesh can reduce dependence on Indian textile products and explore new markets. He said in the past, India unilaterally stopped export of cotton to Bangladesh that hit the local spinning mills.      

Meanwhile, Bangladeshi patients spend 2.00-3.00 billion US dollars in medical expenses in different hospitals in India per year. India has squeezed the regular visa process since July 2024 with no sign of normalizing this year, sources in Dhaka, Kolkata, Bombay and New Delhi said.  

Though the statistics of Bangladeshi tourist arrivals in India during the July-November  period are not available, Bangladesh secured the top position during the first six months of this year (2024), according to statistics of the Union Tourism Ministry of India.

During the first six months of this year (2024), India welcomed nearly 4.78 million foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs), with Bangladesh and the US being the top source countries, according to data available from the Union Tourism Ministry.

This reflects a 9.1 per cent increase from the same period in 2023, although it still trails pre-pandemic levels from 2019, which recorded over 5.29 million FTAs.

Though the High Commission of India in Dhaka has not updated the statistics of visas issued during July-November period of the current calendar year, unofficial sources said that issuance of Indian tourist visas dropped by 80-90 per cent compared to the same period of the last year.

Since the ouster of dictator Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, the India-Bangladesh relations show no sign of improvement as India has restricted issuing visas to Bangladeshis on national security grounds, sources in Dhaka and New Delhi.

Spokesperson of India's foreign ministry Randhir Jaiswal  responding to a question of an Indian  reporter said the High commission of India in Bangladesh will start issuing visas at normal speed after law and order situation improves in Bangladesh and conducive situations prevail.

On the matter of visas for Bangladeshis, Jaiswal said limited visa operations were on, with medical and emergency visas being given.

"When the law and order improves [in Bangladesh] and the situation becomes conducive for full visa operations, we will do that," he said.

Jaiswal, also, called upon the interim government to ensure that assurances given over the protection of minorities be implemented so that "people can feel safe".

Alok Bansal, a Director of the  India Foundation, and also worked with the Indian Navy,  while talking to this correspondent has expressed concern over protection of minorities in  Bangladesh and rise of religious elements after the exit of the former Prime Minister.

Alok Bansal, who also studied at Jawaharlal Nehru University, expressed his views that India is unlikely to issue visas to Bangladeshis at the previous level  unless the security and political threats remain intact.

While talking to this correspondent, a number of Bangladesh diplomats working in Dhaka, New Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata expressed their views. Some political leaders in India are making some provocative statements to woo voters and gain soft popularity. The sense of political conscience will prevail sooner than later in the greater interest of both countries, said a Bangladesh diplomat in New Delhi…….

Meanwhile, Sreeradha Datta, a professor of international relations of O.P. Jindal Global University in New Delhi, while talking to the Dazzling Dawn said that Bangladesh and  India are close neighbours and members of the civil society and media personalities of both countries should behave responsibly  to rebuild the relations damaged in recent times.

Sreeradha Datta deplored that some irresponsible behavior and proactive statements by some politicians in both countries have escalated tensions.

Terming Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visit to Bangladesh as a positive step, Sreeradha Datta believes that Foreign Secretary levels between Bangladesh and India will certainly help reduce tension and improve the environment in both countries.

The political and security issues still dominate Dhaka–New Delhi relations over social and economic issues since the ouster of dictator of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, said diplomats, policy makers and business leaders.

As Dhaka and New Delhi have signed extradition treaties and handed over criminals and political terrorists in the past, New Delhi is most unlikely to hand over Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh as India considers Awami League president as the most trusted partner of the largest South Asian country. Being Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina served the Indian interest during her 15-year plus rule ranging between January 2009-August 5, 2024, said a Bangladesh diplomat. 

Meanwhile, Mohammad Tajul Islam, chief prosecutor of Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), said on Thursday the court had issued arrest warrants for Hasina and 45 others, ordering that they attend court by November 18, according to The Daily Star local newspaper.

“Sheikh Hasina was at the helm of those who committed massacres, killings and crimes against humanity in July to August,” Islam said, referring to a crackdown on student protests, which killed more than 1,000 people, according to the interim Health Ministry.

Meanwhile, the ousted prime minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina went to India for safety reasons on 5 August and is still living there.

Meanwhile, Bangladeshi patients spend 2.00-3.00 US dollars in medical expenses in different hospitals in India per year. India has squeezed the regular visa process since July 2024 with no sign of normalizing this year, sources in Dhaka, Kolkata, Bombay and New Delhi said.

Though the data of Bangladeshi tourist arrivals in India during the July-November  period are not available, Bangladesh secured the top position during the first six months of this year (2024), according to data of the Union Tourism Ministry of India.

During the first six months of this year (2024), India welcomed nearly 4.78 million foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs), with Bangladesh and the US being the top source countries, according to data available from the Union Tourism Ministry.

Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the USA and incumbent President of the Bangladesh Economic Enterprise (BEI) M Humayun Kabir while talking to the correspondent said that New Delhi should understand the mindset of the Bangladesh youth in relations with Dhaka in the new perspective.

He said that US President Joe Biden has stepped down from the US presidential election sensing the mindset of the youths.

M Humayun Kabir says he senses what he calls an "adjustment or understanding gap" between the two countries, and the question of extraditing the former PM will complicate things.

"Yes, there might be some stress in the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India because of the special relationship of India with Sheikh Hasina. Although there is an extradition treaty between the two countries, the final decision to hand her over to Bangladesh authorities will be a political one. The decision will require a lot of thinking and courage and so on," he said.

"But the communication between the two countries at the diplomatic level is uninterrupted. We've seen Indian Premier Narendra Modi congratulate Dr Mohammad Yunus as soon as he (the latter) took oath as the chief adviser to the interim government. However, I sense an adjustment or understanding gap in the relations, as there is a disruption in rhythm vis-a-vis their usual relations with Bangladesh," the former ambassador said.

Shahidus Sadeque, Director Operations at Holiday Inn Dhaka City Center, while talking to The Dazzling Dawn said he needs to visit India to have treatment of his wife at the Indian hospital. As the High Commission of India in Bangladesh is not issuing medical visas at the previous level (that was in practice during the regime of Sheikh Hasina), the treatment of his wife is delayed.

Meanwhile,  Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs Adviser Asif Nazrul strongly criticised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a social media post about Bangladesh's Liberation War, in which Modi claimed it was a victory for India.

In a post on his verified Facebook page today (16 December), Asif Nazrul, a key figure in the interim government formed after the fall of Sheikh Hasina's 15-year regime amid a student-led mass uprising in early August, shared a screenshot of Modi's post.

"I strongly protest. The 16 December 1971 was the day of victory for Bangladesh. India was an ally of this victory, nothing more," the adviser wrote.

Earlier in the day, in a post on X, Modi wrote, "Today, on Vijay Diwas, we honour the courage and sacrifices of the brave soldiers who contributed to India's historic victory in 1971. Their selfless dedication and unwavering resolve safeguarded our nation and brought glory to us.

"This day is a tribute to their extraordinary valour and their unshakeable spirit. Their sacrifices will forever inspire generations and remain deeply embedded in our nation's history."

Anti-Discrimination Student Movement Convener Hasnat Abdullah also criticised the Indian premier's post.

Taking to his verified Facebook page, Hasnat wrote, "It was the Liberation War of Bangladesh, which took place to win freedom from Pakistan. But Modi has claimed this as India's war and their achievement. Bangladesh's existence has been absent in his statement."

Hasnat further said, "I see this as a threat to our independence, sovereignty, and oneness when India claims Bangladesh's independence as their own achievement. It is a must for us to fight against this threat from India. We need to carry on this fight."

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Meanwhile, Bangladesh has suspended all visa and consular services at its Assistant High Commission in Agartala, Tripura, effective immediately, following an attack on the mission premises.

A notification signed by Md Al Amin, First Secretary at the Assistant High Commission, announced the suspension today, citing security concerns.

The decision comes amid escalating tensions between Bangladesh and India after a violent demonstration outside the Agartala mission on Monday.

Protesters reportedly desecrated the Bangladesh national flag during the incident, prompting strong condemnation from Dhaka.

In a statement on Monday, Bangladesh foreign ministry deeply resented the violent demonstration and attack by a large group of protesters of the Hindu Sangharsh Samity on the premises of its Agartala mission.

The Bangladesh government underscored its concern about the security of its diplomatic mission and urged Indian authorities to take immediate action to ensure the safety of the premises and its personnel.

"This particular act in Agartala stands in violation of the inviolability of diplomatic missions, as the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, 1961, asks for," it said in the statement.

Meanwhile, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka in a statement said that the Victory Day symbolises strong bonds of friendship between Bangladesh and India, made eternal by shared sacrifices of the valiant Freedom Fighters and Indian soldiers.

"Greetings from High Commission of India, Dhaka to the People of Bangladesh on the occasion of 54th Victory Day," the High Commission said.

Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar conveyed greetings to Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain and the people of Bangladesh on Victory Day.

Indian President Droupadi Murmu on Monday (December 16, 2024) led the nation in paying tributes to the fallen heroes of the 1971 war that led to the redrawing of the political map of South Asia with the birth of Bangladesh as an independent country.

The stupendous victory in the war following the surrender of over 90,000 Pakistani soldiers on December 16, 1971 ended horrific violence unleashed by the Pakistani army on millions of Bangladeshis.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, paying his heartfelt tributes to the brave soldiers, said their sacrifices will inspire generations and remain deeply embedded in India’s history.

“Today, on Vijay Diwas, we honour the courage and sacrifices of the brave soldiers who contributed to India’s historic victory in 1971. Their selfless dedication and unwavering resolve safeguarded our nation and brought glory to us,” he said in a post on ‘X’.

“This day is a tribute to their extraordinary valour and their unshakable spirit. Their sacrifices will forever inspire generations and remain deeply embedded in our nation’s history,” he said.

In her tribute, Indian President Murmu, who is also the Supreme Commander of the armed forces, said the ultimate sacrifice of the soldiers shall remain a source of national pride.

Meanwhile, Indian Opposition MPs, including the Congress’ Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and a BJP ally raised on Monday the issue of atrocities against minorities in Bangladesh and asked the government to take up the matter strongly with the neighbouring country. Speaking in the Lok Sabha during the Zero Hour, Priyanka Gandhi sought the government’s support for those who are in pain because of the attacks.

Trinamool Congress MP Sudip Bandhopadhyay demanded that the government make a statement in the House on the issue.

“Minorities and Hindus in Bangladesh are being tortured. The foreign secretary visited Bangladesh recently. Along with (TMC MP) Saugata Roy, I spoke to the external affairs minister in the House the day before yesterday. Why is the government keeping mum? The House is running, let us know what actual developments are taking place,” he said.