Starmer’s Inferno: Coup Fears Ignite as Reform UK Takes 20-Point Lead

Westminster is in the throes of a political firestorm, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer fighting for his professional life against a potent cocktail of abysmal public approval, catastrophic poll ratings, and relentless speculation about an imminent cabinet coup. Despite leading the Labour Party to a sweeping victory just 17 months ago, Starmer's government has become destabilised by profound public disillusionment, with all eyes now fixed on Chancellor Rachel Reeves' high-stakes Autumn Budget on November 26—a date widely anticipated as the potential tipping point for a formal leadership challenge.

The Starmer Collapse and the Populist Surge

The government's instability is laid bare by recent polling data, which suggests a seismic shift in the UK's political landscape. Far from consolidating their majority, Labour has fallen into a state of acute crisis, trailing Nigel Farage’s insurgent Reform UK by a shocking margin. Some recent figures place Reform UK’s vote share at an extraordinary 33% to 35%, a lead of up to 20 points over Labour, who are languishing at roughly 15% to 20%. Furthermore, support has haemorrhaged to the left, with the Green Party experiencing a significant surge, polling up to 18% and in some surveys reaching near-parity with the governing party.

This collapse in party support mirrors a historic low in the Prime Minister's personal standing. Starmer's net approval rating has plunged to a staggering -51\%, ranking him among the most unpopular leaders in the Western world. More than half of Britons, specifically 56%, now believe he should resign, underscoring a deep sense of betrayal among the electorate who feel the party has failed to deliver on its 2024 mandate of stability and growth. Trust in his economic stewardship is equally dire, with a net trust score of -41\%.

The Coup That Downing Street Fears

The devastating poll numbers have provided the motivation for the leadership challenge that Starmer's closest allies are desperately trying to pre-empt. Frantic late-night briefings from Number 10 have targeted senior figures believed to be "on manoeuvres," explicitly naming Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as a figure whose name is being prominently circulated among the potential challengers alongside others like Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.

Downing Street's strategy of publicly warning off these potential rivals has been derided by some government critics as a "totally self-defeating briefing," suggesting Starmer is in "full bunker mode," effectively confirming the internal divisions that threaten to tear the party apart. The message from Starmer’s camp is firm: the Prime Minister will "fight" any attempt to remove him and an attempted coup would be a "reckless" act of political self-harm that would destabilise the economy and betray the public trust.

The Budget as a Political Trigger

The entire political climate is now hanging on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ second Autumn Budget on November 26. Reeves is under immense pressure to find a way to plug a debilitating fiscal shortfall, with analysts estimating the required austerity measures could range from £20 billion to £40 billion. The expectation is that the Chancellor will be forced to break or bend manifesto pledges by delivering deeply unpopular tax increases, likely targeting higher earners and wealth, to restore fiscal credibility and settle jittery markets.

With the public already disillusioned, the introduction of a punishing austerity budget is widely viewed within Westminster as the trigger that could provide Starmer’s opponents with the necessary numbers of Labour MPs to launch a formal leadership contest. If the economic pain fails to reverse the polling slide—where Starmer already trails Nigel Farage in the "Best Prime Minister" measure—the governing Labour Party risks descending into a full-blown civil war at the worst possible moment.