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Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally (RN), will face a new appeal trial starting Tuesday over the misuse of European Parliament funds—a case that could decide whether she is allowed to run in the 2027 presidential election.
The 57-year-old politician had been viewed as a serious contender for the presidency until she was convicted last March for orchestrating a long-running fake jobs scheme. The court ruled that European Parliament funds meant to pay parliamentary assistants in Brussels or Strasbourg were instead used to finance party staff in France between 2004 and 2016, costing EU taxpayers an estimated €4.8 million.
Le Pen appealed the verdict along with 10 other party members, and the retrial will run until 12 February. A final ruling, expected before the summer, will be crucial for her political future. If the conviction and sentence are upheld, she may be unable to make a fourth presidential bid. In that case, RN president and her close ally Jordan Bardella, 30, is widely seen as her likely replacement.
Recent polls suggest Bardella’s profile has risen amid Le Pen’s legal troubles. A Verian survey for Le Monde and L’Hémicycle found that nearly half of respondents believed Bardella had the strongest chance of winning the presidency, compared with fewer than one in five for Le Pen. Another poll last year suggested Bardella could win regardless of his second-round opponent, though analysts caution it is still early to predict the 2027 race.
Le Pen has maintained her innocence, accusing the judiciary of trying to block her from power. She has described the case as a form of political persecution, but has also acknowledged Bardella as a viable alternative candidate, saying he could win in her place if she is barred.
Last year’s ruling placed Le Pen at the center of what judges described as a deliberately organized embezzlement system. She was handed a five-year ban from public office, effective from 31 March 2025, a four-year prison sentence—two years suspended and two to be served under electronic monitoring—and a €100,000 fine.
Legal experts note that if the appeal court reduces the ban to one or two years, it could expire before the expected April 2027 election, potentially allowing her to run. Because of this uncertainty, the RN is not expected to announce its presidential candidate until at least this summer.
The conviction sparked backlash from figures on the international populist right. Former US president Donald Trump labeled the case a “witch-hunt,” while reports suggesting possible US sanctions against French judges were dismissed by the US State Department. French judicial and government officials have strongly rejected any suggestion of foreign interference, stressing the independence of the country’s courts.
