Mega Poll Puts Labour Ahead as Westminster Race Remains Tight

A new YouGov MRP projection for Sky News and The Times has placed Labour ahead in a modelled House of Commons election scenario, while projecting a parliament in which no party would secure an overall majority.

The projection, based on fieldwork conducted on 20 and 21 September 2026, gives Labour 153 seats, compared with 139 each for the Conservatives and Reform UK. The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 80 seats, while the Greens are on 93 in the model. The projection is based on polling and constituency-level modelling rather than an actual election result.

The figures illustrate how closely divided the current Westminster political landscape is.

Labour's projected 153 seats would leave the party well below the 326 seats required for an overall Commons majority. The Conservatives and Reform UK are each projected to take 139 seats, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens are also modelled to win substantial numbers of seats.

A separate YouGov voting-intention poll conducted earlier in September had Labour and Reform UK level on 23%, with the Conservatives on 20%. That poll demonstrated the narrow gap between the three largest parties at the time.

The difference between vote share and projected seats is significant because Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system converts national support into individual constituency results. MRP modelling therefore attempts to estimate how polling responses could translate across individual constituencies.

The latest projection comes during Andy Burnham's premiership and follows a period of significant movement in Labour's polling position.

YouGov's July figures showed Labour on 21%, behind Reform UK on 23%, shortly after Burnham became prime minister. By early August, Labour had moved to 24% in the YouGov voting-intention tracker, while Reform stood on 22%.

By September, the race had tightened again, with Labour and Reform both recording 23% in YouGov's 13–14 September poll. The Conservatives were on 20%, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens recorded 13% and 11% respectively.

These figures show changes in reported voting intention over time, but individual polls should not be treated as forecasts of an eventual election result.

Reform UK's position has also changed considerably over the past year.

A Sky News analysis published earlier in September reported that Reform's average support across nine pollsters had fallen from the low thirties in August 2025 to around the mid-twenties a year later. The same analysis said Nigel Farage's average approval rating had fallen from 36% to 25%, while 54% said they disapproved of his performance as Reform leader.

The analysis also noted that Reform had made substantial gains in the 2026 local and devolved elections, while subsequently losing ground in Westminster polling and several high-profile by-elections. These are historical electoral results and polling measurements rather than evidence of what would happen at a future general election.

The latest MRP projection indicates a potentially fragmented House of Commons if its estimates were reproduced at a future election.

With Labour projected on 153 seats, the Conservatives and Reform UK on 139 each, and the Greens and Liberal Democrats also projected to hold sizeable parliamentary groups, forming a government with a majority would require political agreements involving multiple parties or other parliamentary arrangements.

However, MRP projections can change substantially as voting preferences move and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the eventual election result.

The current figures instead provide a snapshot of how national polling could translate into constituency outcomes under the assumptions used by the model.

The polling comes as the main UK parties prepare for their respective political campaigns and conferences, with economic policy, taxation, public services, welfare and Britain's relationship with Europe among the issues shaping the political debate.

Recent YouGov polling has consistently shown a relatively close contest between Labour, Reform UK and the Conservatives. In the 13–14 September poll, Labour and Reform were both on 23%, while the Conservatives were on 20%.