Crime Surge Over Labour Plans Amid Hunt for Released Prisoners

Police across England and Wales are bracing for a potential rise in crime if the government’s proposed Sentencing Bill becomes law, with forecasts suggesting hundreds of thousands of additional offences within a year.

The bill, aimed at reducing prison overcrowding, would see limits placed on short-term sentences and earlier releases for certain offenders. But police chiefs warn such changes could trigger a 4% to 6% spike in crime as the measures take effect.

Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who previously served as a governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are preparing for an uptick in offending across all categories. While rehabilitation initiatives are being expanded, he cautioned that the reforms “must be properly funded” to be effective. The probation service is currently recruiting 1,500 officers annually for the next three years to meet growing demands.

Data shows police recorded 6.6 million crimes in the year to June 2025, meaning a 6% increase could translate to roughly 396,000 more offences.

National Police Chiefs’ Council chair Gavin Stephens agreed that shorter sentences rarely prevent reoffending but said the initial implementation phase will create “added pressure” on policing. He urged the government to ensure adequate resourcing to manage the shift.

The warnings come amid turmoil in the prison system, following two mistaken prisoner releases. A manhunt is under way for Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, a 24-year-old Algerian sex offender accidentally released from HMP Wandsworth on 29 October, and William “Billy” Smith, 35, a convicted fraudster wrongly freed from a different facility.

The incidents follow a similar case involving migrant offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford. The Justice Secretary, David Lammy, said he was “outraged” by the errors but blamed the previous Conservative government for leaving the prison system “in crisis.”

Labour MP Andy Slaughter, chair of the Justice Committee, said the mistaken releases reflect a system “at breaking point,” warning that such errors will persist without urgent investment and reform.

The Ministry of Justice responded that public safety remains the government’s top priority, pledging 14,000 new prison places and a £700 million boost to probation funding over three years, along with new technology to cut admin and support rehabilitation.