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The Downing Street machine is tonight operating under the shadow of a "damning" verdict from its own voter base, as a high-stakes poll reveals a party increasingly convinced that its current leader is the primary obstacle to future success. Fresh data from JL Partners, commissioned by The Independent, suggests that Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has reached a critical inflection point, with 38% of 2024 Labour voters now believing the party would perform better at the next election under a different leader.
The survey of 1,562 adults, conducted in mid-December, paints a picture of a Prime Minister struggling to maintain the "Red Wall" coalition that carried him to power. In a striking blow to his personal legacy, respondents ranked Starmer as the worst Labour Prime Minister in history—placing him even below the divisive figure of Tony Blair. The statistical gap is stark: while 38% of his own supporters want him gone, a mere 13% believe the party's fortunes would decline in his absence.
While Starmer remains publicly committed to leading Labour into the next general election, the "fevered speculation" surrounding his replacement has shifted from quiet whispers to a roar. The poll confirms that if the keys to Number 10 were to change hands, the battle would likely boil down to a high-stakes choice between the Cabinet's firebrand and the "King of the North."
Angela Rayner, despite recently stepping back from the frontlines of government, remains a powerhouse of grassroots loyalty. She currently secures 10% of the backing among Labour supporters, second only to the Manchester Mayor. Allies of the former Deputy Prime Minister have already signaled her intent to renew her public profile, and with 52% of members in separate Survation polling suggesting they would back her over Starmer in a head-to-head, she remains the most viable "in-House" candidate.
However, the real threat to the status quo may come from outside Westminster. Andy Burnham has emerged as the runaway favorite, capturing 19% of support from Labour voters. His "clean break" appeal and criticism of the "Westminster bubble" have resonated deeply, particularly in the North West where 14% of voters say the party would do "much better" without Starmer. The catch remains Burnham’s lack of an MP seat, but the poll suggests his popularity is now so significant that the party's internal rules may face a total stress test if a vacancy occurs.
This JL Partners data carries significant weight in political circles due to the firm's track record. Founded by former Downing Street research directors, JL Partners utilized a "mixed-method" approach for this survey—including in-app polling to reach disengaged voters—which famously allowed them to accurately forecast the 2024 US Election when other pollsters missed the mark. Their findings mirror a secretive internal survey by the campaign group Labour Together, suggesting that the Prime Minister’s inner circle is already aware of the deepening rift.
The rise of the "Left-leaning" trio—Burnham, Rayner, and Deputy Leader Lucy Powell—marks a significant shift in the party's internal gravity. While a pivot toward these figures might help Labour neutralize the growing threat from Zack Polanski’s Green Party, analysts warn it could leave the flank open to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in traditional heartlands.
As the Prime Minister reflects on his "hardest day in office," the numbers suggest his toughest days may still be ahead. With only 18% of the general public viewing him favorably—a net rating comparable to the final days of Boris Johnson—the question in the corridors of power is no longer just "if" a challenge will come, but how much longer the party is willing to wait.
