Moscow Believes Iran Unrest Is Easing After Nationwide Protests

The Kremlin believes that the wave of mass protests in Iran has reached its peak and that the country’s leadership has successfully suppressed internal opposition, according to a leading Russian expert on Iran.

Nikita Smagin told Al Jazeera that Russia’s embassy in Tehran had informed Moscow that unrest had subsided, allowing the Kremlin to “breathe a sigh of relief.” The demonstrations, which began on December 28 in response to economic hardship, spread across hundreds of towns and cities in the heavily sanctioned country of more than 90 million people before being forcibly dispersed by Iranian security forces.

Smagin, who left Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, said Moscow believes Iran now faces no serious internal threat. On Tuesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned what it called “illegal Western pressure” and accused unnamed foreign actors of attempting to destabilise the Islamic Republic.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova claimed that Western-backed “colour revolution” tactics were being used to turn peaceful protests into violent unrest, including attacks on law enforcement and civilians. The Kremlin has long used this narrative to describe popular uprisings in countries such as Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, which led to the collapse of pro-Moscow governments in the early 2000s.

Zakharova said threats by US President Donald Trump to intervene in Iran’s unrest were “categorically unacceptable” and argued that the decline of what she described as externally provoked protests could help stabilise the country. Trump had publicly encouraged Iranians to seize institutions and claimed that US assistance was forthcoming.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has remained silent on the Iranian protests, mirroring his lack of comment on other recent crises involving Moscow’s allies. According to Smagin, Russia initially avoided strong statements because it was uncertain whether Iran’s leadership would survive and did not want to jeopardise relations with any potential new authorities.

This cautious approach resembles Russia’s reaction to political change in Syria following the removal of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024. Moscow later rebuilt ties with the new Syrian leadership, which agreed to uphold existing agreements with Russia.

Analysts say the Kremlin’s repeated references to “colour revolutions” reflect its tendency to interpret mass protests against authoritarian rule as foreign interference. Vyacheslav Likhachev, a Kyiv-based analyst, noted that Russia applied the same narrative to the Arab Spring and to domestic protests within Russia itself.

Iranian authorities have also blamed foreign powers for the unrest. Israeli media aligned with the government have alleged that foreign agents armed protesters, while some analysts believe Israel may have played a role in escalating tensions, despite acknowledging the legitimacy of protesters’ grievances.

Iranian state media reported that more than 100 security personnel were killed during two weeks of unrest, while opposition sources claim a much higher death toll, including thousands of protesters. These figures cannot be independently verified due to a nationwide internet blackout.

Russia and Iran share a complex history marked by rivalry and cooperation. While relations were strained in earlier centuries, post-Soviet Russia became one of Iran’s main international supporters, helping it evade sanctions, construct nuclear infrastructure, and acquire advanced weapons systems. In return, Iran has supplied Russia with military equipment used in its war in Ukraine.

Despite their strategic partnership, Russia has shown little appetite for confronting the United States over Iran. Former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev said Moscow is unwilling to risk further diplomatic embarrassment or jeopardise its negotiations with Washington over Ukraine.

With Western sanctions continuing to strain Russia’s economy and public fatigue growing over the war in Ukraine, many Russians appear largely indifferent to developments in Iran.

Nevertheless, some pro-Kremlin figures have suggested that Russia could assist Iran with political and institutional reforms once the unrest subsides. Analyst Sergey Markov argued that while the protests would likely be crushed, Iran would still require reforms and could benefit from Russian guidance on political strategy.