Why Is Shabana Mahmood Hiding Asylum Homelessness Data?

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is facing mounting Cabinet pressure after repeatedly refusing to disclose internal Home Office assessments of how many people could be made homeless by her sweeping reforms to the asylum system. The standoff, which has deepened in recent days, pits the Home Office against senior ministers who fear the changes could derail the government's flagship pledge to end rough sleeping. It comes as the government simultaneously launches a controversial new community sponsorship route allowing charities, universities and faith groups to bring refugees to Britain from countries including Pakistan, Malaysia and Egypt.

Daily Dazzling Dawn understands that Mahmood has been asked on multiple occasions to share the Home Office's assessment of the impact her changes would have on homelessness and community cohesion, but has declined to engage with the requests. One source with knowledge of the standoff told journalists that the Home Secretary had "point-blank refused to engage with it," causing what was described as "a huge amount of frustration among other ministers who are working on the government's push to end rough sleeping."

The Home Office insists it cannot quantify the exact impact because the detail of the proposals has not yet been finalised, and maintains the new system will be designed to minimise any impact on destitution and homelessness. A spokesperson said the policy "went through the normal cross-government process, with information shared through the formal collective agreement process," adding that ending asylum hotels "will not leave people homeless" and that reforms have already saved taxpayers more than £1bn since the election. However, other figures in government believe the department could release more detailed information but is reluctant to acknowledge the scale of disruption the proposals could cause.

Mahmood announced her changes to the asylum system last November, including ending permanent leave to remain and removing the government's duty to support people who would otherwise become destitute. She argued the proposals would restore order to the immigration system and puncture the appeal of hard-right parties such as Reform UK. In an impact assessment released this month, however, her department conceded that homelessness could rise, warning that if repayments materially reduce disposable income, "some individuals could experience financial hardship or destitution," which "may increase demand for homelessness services and rough sleeping support, creating additional cost pressures for local authorities." An ally of Mahmood pointed to the same document, which states that thresholds and repayment rates will be designed to ensure individuals retain sufficient income to meet basic living standards, and that the scale of risk cannot be assessed until the recoupment mechanism is developed.

The first requests for detailed impact data were made by Ali McGovern and Miatta Fahnbulleh when they served as housing ministers under Sir Keir Starmer. They were supported by the then housing secretary Steve Reed, who was also understood to have been concerned about a possible rise in rough sleeping. The three ministers feared the push to move asylum seekers out of hotels could lead to more people sleeping on the streets and prevent the government from meeting its target of halving rough sleeping by the end of the parliament. McGovern and Fahnbulleh secured a meeting with Alex Norris, then a Home Office minister and now Justice Secretary, but felt few of their questions were answered. The pair were preparing to write a formal letter to the Home Office demanding the information when Fahnbulleh resigned from government, a move that helped bring about Starmer's departure from Downing Street. The letter was never sent.

The row has only intensified since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, not least because he has promised to give every rough sleeper a route off the streets by Christmas, committing hundreds of millions of pounds to the effort. Angela Rayner, Reed's successor as Housing Secretary, is also demanding more detail about the impact of Mahmood's proposals. Daily Dazzling Dawn understands she is particularly concerned that moving asylum seekers out of hotels and into houses of multiple occupancy could reignite anti-immigration protests. Rayner has additionally argued against Mahmood's changes to legal migration, pressing for care workers to be exempted from plans making it harder for workers to achieve settled status. This newspaper revealed earlier this year that Burnham was considering intervening to ensure care workers were exempted and to prevent a sudden exodus from the sector. The issue is set to be decided over the next ten days following a series of meetings between senior ministers. A government source said the Prime Minister wants ministers to deal with the detail of the policy, but has made clear he supports Mahmood while also wanting to ensure sectors receive the support they need.

Amid the internal discord, the government has pressed ahead with a new safe and legal route permitting UK-registered charities, universities, faith groups and businesses with a good reputation and the ability to provide accommodation to sponsor refugees. Eligible individuals must have sought protection in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Egypt, Uganda or Kenya, be registered with the UNHCR, and pass security checks. Around 25 per cent of arrivals will be Afghan women and girls and Palestinians, with Palestinians referred through the International Refugee Assistance Project and most others via the UNHCR. The first arrivals are expected next autumn, with numbers set to ramp up to the low thousands as illegal migration falls, although the annual cap has not been disclosed.

Critics have seized on the scheme. Robert Bates, Research Director at the Centre for Migration Control, said: "The Shabana-Wave begins. Disaster will ensue. The Home Secretary has given a motivated cabal of open border activist groups, masquerading as charities, the right to bring migrants to Britain." Attention has focused on the more than 730,000 registered Afghan refugees in Pakistan, while the UNHCR reports 225,740 refugees and asylum seekers registered in Malaysia, around 90 per cent of them from Myanmar. Border Security and Asylum Minister Anna Turley said communities across the country would now be able to "welcome refugees fleeing war and persecution," adding that charities, community groups and universities would be at the heart of these efforts.