UK Asylum Shift: Pakistani Applications Soar, Bangladeshi Rates Fall

While Pakistani nationals accounted for the most claims (over 10,500), their initial grant rate for asylum in 2024 was 51%. In contrast, Bangladeshi nationals saw one of the lowest initial asylum grant rates at just 18%. For overall long-term immigration, Pakistanis were also a top source, being the third-largest non-EU+ group after Indians and Nigerians, Daily Dazzling Dawn understands.

The UK's migration flows are undergoing a significant gender realignment following a series of government policy changes. The most immediate impact stems from the Government's decision in September 2024 to suspend new applications to the existing refugee family reunion route.

New analysis from the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory highlights a key consequence: an expected increase in the proportion of men granted refugee status. This is because women and girls historically accounted for an overwhelming {92%} of those granted family reunion visas between 2010 and 2024. Restricting this route, which is primarily used by women to join their already-granted refugee husbands or fathers, is projected to temporarily shift the gender balance in favour of the men who enter via the main asylum route. Researcher Dr. Nuni Jorgensen warned that this could lead to more women attempting to come to the UK through unauthorised routes, as they are "much less likely to make small boat crossings or apply for asylum than men."

This policy change follows a broader shift already observed in overall visa grants. For the first time since 2016, grants across multiple visa categories in 2024 were slightly skewed towards men, with 51% given to men and 49% to women. This was largely driven by a rise in male international students, though the subsequent ban on most international students bringing dependants in 2024 disproportionately impacted women, whose share as main applicants dropped to 46%}.

Asylum and Welfare: Pakistanis Lead Claims, Bangladeshis See Low Grant Rate

The policy upheaval comes amid record-high asylum claims, with mathbf{108,138} applicants in the year 2024. The highest volume of asylum seekers in the UK now comes from Pakistan, followed by Afghanistan and Iran.

Nationality Asylum Grant Rate Initial Decision, 2024

| Pakistan 51%

| Bangladesh 18% 

Regarding welfare benefits, the latest data (June 2025) on Universal Credit claimants shows that individuals with Refugee status accounted for 1.5% of all claimants. Broader data on those receiving benefits shows that the vast majority, 76.4%, are from the White ethnic group. However, both recently arrived migrants from Pakistan 21% and Bangladesh 27% have a relatively high likelihood of living in a deprived household, suggesting a need for welfare support once they gain legal recourse to public funds (such as refugee status or settlement).

The Bangladeshi population in the UK stands at approximately 652,535 (2021/22 Census), representing around 1% of the total UK population, with the largest concentration in London, particularly in the borough of Tower Hamlets.